Their approach was to implement a response surface. The experiment involved 50 runs! The whole model results were fairly good; however, my F ratio would lead me to believe that the model isn't as good as it could be. In principle, focusing on just the statistically significant terms should improve the model.
ANOVA Results from Fit to Whole Model
Source
|
DF
|
Sum of Squares
|
Mean Square
|
F Ratio
|
Model
|
20
|
250.90346
|
12.5452
|
2.5721
|
Error
|
29
|
141.44474
|
4.8774
|
Prob > F
|
C. Total
|
49
|
392.34820
|
0.0101*
|
Term
|
Estimate
|
Std Error
|
t Ratio
|
Prob>|t|
|
|
Intercept
|
10.629137
|
0.765356
|
13.89
|
<.0001*
|
|
Glutamine
|
-1.009144
|
0.3517
|
-2.87
|
0.0076*
|
|
EAA
|
0.5448557
|
0.3517
|
1.55
|
0.1322
|
|
NEAA
|
1.0784807
|
0.3517
|
3.07
|
0.0047*
|
|
ITS
|
0.4322307
|
0.3517
|
1.23
|
0.2290
|
|
Lipids
|
-0.2868
|
0.356825
|
-0.80
|
0.4281
|
|
Glutamine*Glutamine
|
0.257788
|
0.390589
|
0.66
|
0.5145
|
|
Glutamine*EAA
|
-0.83606
|
0.394892
|
-2.12
|
0.0429*
|
|
EAA*EAA
|
-1.054712
|
0.390589
|
-2.70
|
0.0114*
|
|
Glutamine*NEAA
|
-0.126685
|
0.394892
|
-0.32
|
0.7507
|
|
EAA*NEAA
|
-0.051685
|
0.394892
|
-0.13
|
0.8968
|
|
NEAA*NEAA
|
-1.135962
|
0.390589
|
-2.91
|
0.0069*
|
|
Glutamine*ITS
|
0.0920648
|
0.394892
|
0.23
|
0.8173
|
|
EAA*ITS
|
0.0858148
|
0.394892
|
0.22
|
0.8295
|
|
NEAA*ITS
|
-0.29231
|
0.394892
|
-0.74
|
0.4651
|
|
ITS*ITS
|
-0.873462
|
0.390589
|
-2.24
|
0.0332*
|
|
Glutamine*(Lipids-0.04)
|
-0.319903
|
0.399728
|
-0.80
|
0.4300
|
|
EAA*(Lipids-0.04)
|
0.5300965
|
0.399728
|
1.33
|
0.1951
|
|
NEAA*(Lipids-0.04)
|
0.1207215
|
0.399728
|
0.30
|
0.7648
|
|
ITS*(Lipids-0.04)
|
0.0894715
|
0.399728
|
0.22
|
0.8245
|
|
(Lipids-0.04)*(Lipids-0.04)
|
-0.229712
|
0.390589
|
-0.59
|
0.5610
|
When only the statistically significant terms are included, the F ratio improves as the model shifts the majority of degrees of freedom to estimating the error term while maintaining that all the factors remain statistically significant.
ANOVA Results from Fit to Statistically Significant Terms
Source
|
DF
|
Sum of Squares
|
Mean Square
|
F Ratio
|
Model
|
6
|
208.66396
|
34.7773
|
8.1413
|
Error
|
43
|
183.68424
|
4.2717
|
Prob > F
|
C. Total
|
49
|
392.34820
|
<.0001*
|
Parameter Estimates from Fit to Statistically Significant Terms
Term
|
Estimate
|
Std Error
|
t Ratio
|
Prob>|t|
|
|
Intercept
|
10.65275
|
0.584584
|
18.22
|
<.0001*
|
|
Glutamine
|
-0.98875
|
0.326792
|
-3.03
|
0.0042*
|
|
NEAA
|
1.08125
|
0.326792
|
3.31
|
0.0019*
|
|
Glutamine*EAA
|
-0.826563
|
0.365365
|
-2.26
|
0.0288*
|
|
EAA*EAA
|
-1.052813
|
0.365365
|
-2.88
|
0.0062*
|
|
ITS*ITS
|
-0.871563
|
0.365365
|
-2.39
|
0.0215*
|
|
NEAA*NEAA
|
-1.134063
|
0.365365
|
-3.10
|
0.0034*
|
The profiler can now be used to give us some insight into the VCD as the process is varied. The VCD is linearly affected by the glutamine. There are also pairwise and square terms in the model and from the figure it's apparent that the VCD is at a saddle point for some of these.
Variation in the VCD as a Function of Media Additives
As the glutamine is reduced, the NEAA and EAA components have to be adjusted to remain at the top of the saddle point. These results provide a formulation strategy for maximizing the VCD that the authors pursue.
Maximizing VCD as a Function of Media Additives
The process involved 50 runs and raises an interesting strategy question. Could the same results have been achieved in fewer runs? Starting with a screening design that looks for main effects only, 8 runs would identify that Glutamine and NEAA were important. The upper and lower limits were set to match the coded values used in the experiment.
Proposed Screening Design
JMP can then be used to create a new design that takes the results from the screening design and expands it to a full-factorial. This leads to an additional 8 experiments for a total of 16 completed
Augmented Design to Initial Screening Design
The results would miss the square terms and the interaction between glutamine and EAA. How would the interpretation of the current data look with only the Glutamine and NEAA? The ANOVA results suggest the model with Glutamine and NEAA is comparable to the response surface approach.
ANOVA Results using Only Glutamine and NEAA Main Effects
Source
|
DF
|
Sum of Squares
|
Mean Square
|
F Ratio
|
Model
|
2
|
94.08109
|
47.0405
|
7.0990
|
Error
|
48
|
318.06714
|
6.6264
|
Prob > F
|
C. Total
|
50
|
412.14824
|
|
0.0020*
|
The appealing element of this approach is the low number of experiments. With just 16 experiments, we could have a model that captures the basic behavior of the VCD. An additional set of runs, three as an example, at the center point would then provide confirmation of the model. The interpretation re-enforces the importance of balancing the number of experiments and the desired outcome. Where possible, I always start with the lowest number of experiments and then augment as necessary.
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